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Exploring the drivers of the real term premium in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2025-3 Zabi Tarshi, Gitanjali Kumar
Changes in the term premium can reflect uncertainty about inflation, growth and monetary policy. Understanding the key factors that influence the term premium is important when central banks make decisions about monetary policy. In this paper, we derive the real term premium from the nominal term premium in Canada.
February 5, 2025

Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee

CFEC is a senior level industry-wide committee to facilitate the sharing of information between market participants and the Bank on the foreign exchange market.

Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar

Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies.
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