Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations Staff Discussion Paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E7
Resilience of bank liquidity ratios in the presence of a central bank digital currency Staff Analytical Note 2022-5 Alissa Gorelova, Bena Lands, Maria teNyenhuis Could Canadian banks continue to meet their regulatory liquidity requirements after the introduction of a cash-like retail central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We conduct a hypothetical exercise to estimate how a CBDC could affect bank liquidity by increasing the run-off rates of transactional retail deposits under four increasingly severe scenarios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, E, E4, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O33
May 5, 2022 Supporting Indigenous prosperity Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri National Aboriginal Capital Corporations Association Gatineau, Quebec In his final speech before retiring from the Bank of Canada, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri talks about the Bank’s contribution to advancing economic inclusion and opportunity for Indigenous peoples. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff Working Paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71
May 5, 2022 Economic reconciliation: Supporting a return to Indigenous prosperity Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri National Aboriginal Capital Corporations Association Gatineau, Quebec Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses economic reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy
Identifying Financially Remote First Nations Reserves Staff Discussion Paper 2022-11 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib Chen et al. (2021) show that almost one-third of First Nations band offices in Canada are within 1 kilometre (km) of an automated banking machine (ABM) or financial institution (FI) branch and more than half are within 5 km. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, G, G2, G21
May 3, 2022 The Bank of Canada: A matter of trust Remarks Carolyn Rogers Women in Capital Markets Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses how the Bank of Canada’s independence and accountability help build public trust. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments