Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity Staff Working Paper 2007-58 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E6, E66
Uncertainty and the Specificity of Human Capital Staff Working Paper 2007-57 Martin Gervais, Igor Livshits, Césaire Meh This paper studies the choice between general and specific human capital. A trade-off arises because general human capital, while less productive, can easily be reallocated across firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D9, D92, J, J2, J24, J4, J41, J6, J62
Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance Staff Working Paper 2007-56 Òscar Jordà, Sharon Kozicki A covariance-stationary vector of variables has a Wold representation whose coefficients can be semi-parametrically estimated by local projections (Jordà, 2005). Substituting the Wold representations for variables in model expressions generates restrictions that can be used by the method of minimum distance to estimate model parameters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E4, E47
The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices Staff Working Paper 2007-55 Sylvie Morin, Calista Cheung Over the past 5 years, real energy and non-energy commodity prices have trended sharply higher. These relative price movements have had important implications for inflation and economic activity in both Canada and the rest of the world. China has accounted for the bulk of incremental demand for oil and many base metals over this period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, F, F4, O, O1, O19, Q, Q1, Q11
Tracking Canadian Trend Productivity: A Dynamic Factor Model with Markov Switching Staff Discussion Paper 2007-12 Michael Dolega The author attempts to track Canadian labour productivity over the past four decades using a multivariate dynamic factor model that, in addition to the labour productivity series, includes aggregate compensation and consumption information. Productivity is assumed to switch between two regimes (the high-growth state and the low-growth state) with different trend growth rates according to […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, O, O4, O5, O51
November 20, 2007 Managing Risks to Financial System Stability Remarks Pierre Duguay CFA Québec Québec, Québec The recent dislocations in credit markets have brought these issues into sharp focus. Among other things, the market turbulence has highlighted the critical role that confidence and liquidity play in financial markets. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
November 15, 2007 Debt Strategy Consultations 2008/09 Views Sought on Issues Relating to the Government's Domestic Debt Program for 2008/09 and Beyond A consultation document on issues relating to the design and operation of the government's domestic debt program for the fiscal year 2008/09 and beyond, prepared jointly by the Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada, is being made public today. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
November 14, 2007 Canada & Ontario in the Global Economy: Challenges in a Changing World Presentation Paul Jenkins Ontario Economic Summit Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Presentations
November 7, 2007 Developing a Framework to Assess Financial Stability Conference held on 7 and 8 November 2007 (papers in unedited, electronic format only) Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops
November 6, 2007 North America in Today's Global Economic Setting Remarks Paul Jenkins Canadian Association of New York New York, New York In recent months, much has been said, and written, about developments in financial markets. The turbulence in global credit markets, which had its roots in developments in the market for subprime mortgages here in the United States, has been a focal point of attention for market participants and policy-makers around the world. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks