A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases Staff Working Paper 2014-38 Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify the following: (1) regimes where economies synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases; and (2) regimes where economies are unsynchronized, essentially following independent business cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C4, C45, E, E3, E32
Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach Staff Working Paper 2014-37 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, F, F3, F36, F37, G, G0, G01, G1, G17
September 3, 2014 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
August 31, 2014 Research Update - August 2014 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
August 29, 2014 Weekly Financial Statistics - 29 August 2014 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
August 29, 2014 Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2014 Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2014 - For the period ended 30 June 2014 Content Type(s): Publications, Quarterly Financial Report
August 28, 2014 Banking and Financial Statistics - August 2014 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Banking and Financial Statistics
August 26, 2014 Bank of Canada Announces the Recipient of its 2014 Law Enforcement Award of Excellence for Counterfeit Deterrence Ottawa, Ontario This award was established in 2004 to recognize the work of Canadians in the field of law enforcement in deterring and preventing the counterfeiting of Canada’s bank notes. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Topic(s): Bank notes