Staff working papers

The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter.

The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.

The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship.

The authors characterize the equilibrium for a small economy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model with uncertainty.

The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel.

The authors examine the characteristics of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending from the 1960s to 2005.

The author explores a fundamental trade-off that occurs between settlement delay and intraday liquidity in the daily operation of large-value payment systems (LVPS), with specific application to Canada's Large Value Transfer System (LVTS).

Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world.

From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries.