Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability
Staff Working Paper 2013-27
Huixin Bi,
Eric M. Leeper
The authors study the implications of fiscal policy behaviour for sovereign risk in a framework that determines a country’s fiscal limit, the point at which, for economic or political reasons, taxes and spending can no longer adjust to stabilize debt.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E6,
E62,
E65,
H,
H6,
H63
Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
Staff Working Paper 2013-26
Huixin Bi,
Eric M. Leeper,
Campbell Leith
The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E6,
E62,
E63,
H,
H3,
H30,
H6,
H60
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
Staff Working Paper 2013-25
Christiane Baumeister,
Lutz Kilian,
Xiaoqing Zhou
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
G,
G1,
G15,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Is There a Quality Bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from Micro Data
Staff Working Paper 2013-24
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher-priced products, mostly for durable and semi-durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non-shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
M,
M1,
M11,
O,
O4,
O47
A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market
Staff Working Paper 2013-23
Ron Alquist,
Justin-Damien Guénette
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43,
Q47
The Threat of Counterfeiting in Competitive Search Equilibrium
Staff Working Paper 2013-22
Enchuan Shao
Recent studies in monetary theory show that if buyers can use lotteries to signal the quality of bank notes, counterfeiting does not occur in a pooling equilibrium. In this paper, I investigate the robustness of this non-existence result by considering an alternative trading mechanism.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
D83,
E,
E4,
E42
Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns
Staff Working Paper 2013-21
Joshua Aizenman,
Gurnain Pasricha
In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the factors that motivated emerging economies to change their capital outflow controls in recent decades. Liberalization of capital outflow controls can allow emerging-market economies (EMEs) to reduce net capital inflow (NKI) pressures, but may cost their governments the fiscal revenues that external financial repression generates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial system regulation and policies,
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F32,
G,
G1,
G15
Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions
Staff Working Paper 2013-20
Nathan Porter,
TengTeng Xu
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58
Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults
Staff Working Paper 2013-19
M. Hashem Pesaran,
TengTeng Xu
This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Economic models,
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
G,
G2,
G21