Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
Uncertain Costs and Vertical Differentiation in an Insurance Duopoly
Staff Working Paper 2014-14
Radoslav Raykov
Classical oligopoly models predict that firms differentiate vertically as a way of softening price competition, but some metrics suggest very little quality differentiation in the U.S. auto insurance market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D43,
D8,
D81,
G,
G2,
G22,
L,
L2,
L22
Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models
Staff Working Paper 2014-13
Bruno Feunou,
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E47,
G,
G1,
G12
Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs
Staff Working Paper 2014-12
Jasmina Arifovic,
Janet Hua Jiang
A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C91,
C92,
D,
D8,
D80,
E,
E5,
E58,
G,
G2,
G20
Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work
Staff Working Paper 2014-11
Christiane Baumeister,
Pierre Guérin,
Lutz Kilian
The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
G,
G1,
G14,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households
Staff Working Paper 2014-10
Miguel Ampudia,
Michael Ehrmann
This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
D,
D0,
D03,
D1,
D14,
D8,
D83,
G,
G1,
G11
Labor Market Participation, Unemployment and Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2014-9
Alessia Campolmi,
Stefano Gnocchi
We incorporate a participation decision in a standard New Keynesian model with matching frictions and show that treating the labor force as constant leads to incorrect evaluation of alternative policies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52
Rollover Risk and the Maturity Transformation Function of Banks
Staff Working Paper 2014-8
Teodora Paligorova,
João Santos
This paper shows that banks that rely heavily on short-term funding engage less in maturity transformation in an attempt to decrease their exposure to rollover risk. These banks shorten both the maturity of their portfolio of loans as well as the maturity of newly issued loans. We find that the loan yield curve becomes steeper with banks’ increasing use of short-term funding.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21
Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure
Staff Working Paper 2014-7
H. Evren Damar,
Reint Gropp,
Adi Mordel
The paper employs a unique identification strategy that links survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data in order to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Domestic demand and components,
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E4,
E44,
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G21
A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2014-6
Sami Alpanda,
Gino Cateau,
Césaire Meh
We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
F,
F4,
F41