Staff working papers

Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.

Content older than 10 years is available on the Bank’s Open Access Repository.

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1342 result(s)

Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach

Staff Working Paper 2014-37 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li
The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, F, F3, F36, F37, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

Global Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period: What Explains the Twin Puzzle?

Staff Working Paper 2014-36 Christian Friedrich
Inflation dynamics in advanced countries have produced two consecutive puzzles during the years after the global financial crisis. The first puzzle emerged when inflation rates over the period 2009-11 were consistently higher than expected, although economic slack in advanced countries reached its highest level in recent history.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, F, F4, F41

Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labour Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets

Staff Working Paper 2014-35 Sumru Altug, Serdar Kabaca
This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labour input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output.

Housework and Fiscal Expansions

Staff Working Paper 2014-34 Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser, Evi Pappa
We build an otherwise-standard business cycle model with housework, calibrated consistently with data on time use, in order to discipline consumption-hours complementarity and relate its strength to the size of fiscal multipliers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, E6, E62

Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities

Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich
This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009.

Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis

Staff Working Paper 2014-30 Ali Kakhbod, Toni Ahnert
We propose a parsimonious model of information choice in a global coordination game of regime change that is used to analyze debt crises, bank runs or currency attacks. A change in the publicly available information alters the uncertainty about the behavior of other investors.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G0, G01

Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

Staff Working Paper 2014-28 Michael Ehrmann, Damjan Pfajfar, Emiliano Santoro
This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households’ financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31
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