Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1330
result(s)
Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans
Staff Working Paper 2024-1
Shihan Xie,
Victoria Wenxin Xie,
Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Credit and credit aggregates
JEL Code(s):
G,
G5,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
Staff Working Paper 2023-63
Olena Kostyshyna,
Luba Petersen
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C93,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
E59,
E7
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas
We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Housing,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E5,
E52,
R,
R0,
R00
Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function
Staff Working Paper 2023-61
Tony Chernis,
Niko Hauzenberger,
Florian Huber,
Gary Koop,
James Mitchell
This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C53
Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-60
Agostina Brinatti,
Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F16,
F2,
F22,
J,
J6,
J61
Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models
Staff Working Paper 2023-59
Tao Wang
Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
E,
E2,
E21,
E7,
E71,
G,
G5,
G51
Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games
Staff Working Paper 2023-58
Erhao Xie
This paper studies the testable implication of players’ collusive or cooperative behaviour in a binary choice game with complete information. I illustrate the implementation of this test by revisiting the entry game between Walmart and Kmart.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C57,
L,
L1,
L13
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.
Staff Working Paper 2023-57
Anna Maria Mayda,
Mine Z. Senses,
Walter Steingress
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
International topics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F22,
H,
H4,
H41,
H7,
J,
J6,
J61,
J68,
R,
R5
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers
Staff Working Paper 2023-56
Sami Alpanda,
Uluc Aysun,
Serdar Kabaca
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E6,
E62,
F,
F4,
F41,
F44