Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
The Role of Card Acceptance in the Transaction Demand for Money
Staff Working Paper 2014-44
Kim Huynh,
Philipp Schmidt-Dengler,
Helmut Stix
The use of payment cards, either debit or credit, is becoming more and more widespread in developed economies. Nevertheless, the use of cash remains significant.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C35,
C8,
C83,
E,
E4,
E41
International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada
Staff Working Paper 2014-43
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Abeer Reza,
Kristina Hess
The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F42,
F44
What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?
Staff Working Paper 2014-42
Ron Alquist,
Gregory Bauer,
Antonio Diez de los Rios
Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
G,
G1,
G12,
G13,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Improving Public Equity Markets? No Pain, No Gain
Staff Working Paper 2014-41
Katya Kartashova
This paper quantifies the effects of improving public equity markets on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. I use an open-economy extension of Angeletos (2007), where entrepreneurs face idiosyncratic productivity risk in privately held firms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G1,
G11,
O,
O1,
O11,
O16
Balance Sheets of Financial Intermediaries: Do They Forecast Economic Activity?
Staff Working Paper 2014-40
Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial intermediaries’ balance sheets to a wide range of economic activity measures in the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53
Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks
Staff Working Paper 2014-39
William A. Barnett,
Marcelle Chauvet,
Danilo Leiva-Leon
This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real-time information arrives at different frequencies and asynchronously, which poses challenges of mixed frequencies, missing data and ragged edges.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E31,
E32
A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases
Staff Working Paper 2014-38
Danilo Leiva-Leon
This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify the following: (1) regimes where economies synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases; and (2) regimes where economies are unsynchronized, essentially following independent business cycles.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C4,
C45,
E,
E3,
E32
Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach
Staff Working Paper 2014-37
Ian Christensen,
Fuchun Li
The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event.
Global Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period: What Explains the Twin Puzzle?
Staff Working Paper 2014-36
Christian Friedrich
Inflation dynamics in advanced countries have produced two consecutive puzzles during the years after the global financial crisis. The first puzzle emerged when inflation rates over the period 2009-11 were consistently higher than expected, although economic slack in advanced countries reached its highest level in recent history.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
F,
F4,
F41