Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1323
result(s)
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries
Staff Working Paper 2016-11
Benjamin Klaus,
Tuomas Peltonen,
Thibaut Duprey
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Monetary and financial indicators
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C54,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G15
Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures
Staff Working Paper 2016-10
Fuchun Li,
Héctor Pérez Saiz
We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23
The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes
Staff Working Paper 2016-9
Christian Friedrich,
Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International financial markets,
International topics,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F21,
F3,
F32,
G,
G1,
G11
Wait a Minute: The Efficacy of Discounting versus Non-Pecuniary Payment Steering
Staff Working Paper 2016-8
Angelika Welte
Merchants who accept credit cards face payment processing fees. In most countries, the no-surcharge rule prohibits them from using surcharges to pass these fees on to customers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Market structure and pricing,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
E,
E5,
E58,
G,
G2,
G28
Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey
Staff Working Paper 2016-7
Simon Richards,
Matthieu Verstraete
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C2,
C25,
D,
D2,
D21,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58
A Microfounded Design of Interconnectedness-Based Macroprudential Policy
Staff Working Paper 2016-6
Jose Fique
To address the challenges posed by global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended an “additional loss absorbency requirement” for these institutions. Along these lines, I develop a microfounded design of capital surcharges that target the interconnectedness component of systemic risk.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
D85,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters
Staff Working Paper 2016-5
Soojin Jo,
Rodrigo Sekkel
We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C38,
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E32
To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse
Staff Working Paper 2016-4
Radoslav Raykov
This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G19,
G2,
G21
Monetary Commitment and the Level of Public Debt
Staff Working Paper 2016-3
Stefano Gnocchi,
Luisa Lambertini
We analyze the interaction between committed monetary policy and discretionary fiscal policy in a model with public debt, endogenous government expenditures, distortive taxation and nominal rigidities.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Fiscal policy,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52