Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil
Staff Working Paper 2016-18
Christiane Baumeister,
Lutz Kilian
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
D,
D8,
D84,
G,
G1,
G14,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Opaque Assets and Rollover Risk
Staff Working Paper 2016-17
Benjamin Nelson,
Toni Ahnert
We model the asset-opacity choice of an intermediary subject to rollover risk in wholesale funding markets. Greater opacity means investors form more dispersed beliefs about an intermediary’s profitability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G2
Asset Encumbrance, Bank Funding and Financial Fragility
Staff Working Paper 2016-16
Kartik Anand,
Prasanna Gai,
James Chapman,
Toni Ahnert
In this piece we show that a limit on the level of asset encumbrance and minimum capital requirements are effective tools for minimizing the incentive for banks to take excessive risk.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G21,
G28
How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030
Staff Working Paper 2016-15
Jeannine Bailliu,
Mark Kruger,
Argyn Toktamyssov,
Wheaton Welbourn
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E3,
E32,
O4
A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard
Staff Working Paper 2016-14
Warren E. Weber
This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Exchange rates,
Financial services,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
E58
Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation
Staff Working Paper 2016-13
Christopher Hajzler,
Jonathan Rosborough
Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Economic models,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F21,
F23,
F3,
F34
Capital Structure, Pay Structure and Job Termination
Staff Working Paper 2016-12
Jason Allen,
James R. Thompson
We develop a model to analyze the link between financial leverage, worker pay structure and the risk of job termination. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that even in the absence of any agency problem among workers, variable pay can be optimal despite workers being risk averse and firms risk neutral.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G24,
J,
J3,
J33
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries
Staff Working Paper 2016-11
Benjamin Klaus,
Tuomas Peltonen,
Thibaut Duprey
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Monetary and financial indicators
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C54,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G15
Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures
Staff Working Paper 2016-10
Fuchun Li,
Héctor Pérez Saiz
We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23