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Staff working papers

Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.

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1306 result(s)

How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.

A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard

Staff Working Paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber
This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard.

Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation

Staff Working Paper 2016-13 Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Rosborough
Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.

Capital Structure, Pay Structure and Job Termination

Staff Working Paper 2016-12 Jason Allen, James R. Thompson
We develop a model to analyze the link between financial leverage, worker pay structure and the risk of job termination. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that even in the absence of any agency problem among workers, variable pay can be optimal despite workers being risk averse and firms risk neutral.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Labour markets JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, J, J3, J33

Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures

Staff Working Paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz
We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.

The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.

Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey

Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.

A Microfounded Design of Interconnectedness-Based Macroprudential Policy

Staff Working Paper 2016-6 Jose Fique
To address the challenges posed by global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended an “additional loss absorbency requirement” for these institutions. Along these lines, I develop a microfounded design of capital surcharges that target the interconnectedness component of systemic risk.
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