Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests
Staff Working Paper 2018-54
Maarten van Oordt
How much capital do banks need as a buffer to absorb severe shocks? By using historical stock market data, market-based stress tests help estimate the magnitude of capital buffers necessary to absorb severe but plausible shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G21,
G28
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China
Staff Working Paper 2018-53
Huixin Bi,
Yongquan Cao,
Wei Dong
This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Fiscal policy,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E6,
E62
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts
Staff Working Paper 2018-52
Julien Champagne,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Rodrigo Sekkel
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E37
Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability
Staff Working Paper 2018-51
Radoslav Raykov,
Consuelo Silva-Buston
This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G2
Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
Staff Working Paper 2018-50
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C18,
C3,
C32,
E,
E0,
E02,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52
Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market
Staff Working Paper 2018-49
Lin Shao
This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Firm dynamics,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
O,
O1,
O17,
O4,
O47
Should Bank Capital Regulation Be Risk Sensitive?
Staff Working Paper 2018-48
Toni Ahnert,
James Chapman,
Carolyn A. Wilkins
We present a simple model to study the risk sensitivity of capital regulation. A banker funds investment with uninsured deposits and costly capital, where capital resolves a moral hazard problem in the banker’s choice of risk.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Challenges in Implementing Worst-Case Analysis
Staff Working Paper 2018-47
Jon Danielsson,
Lerby Ergun,
Casper G. de Vries
Worst-case analysis is used among financial regulators in the wake of the recent financial crisis to gauge the tail risk. We provide insight into worst-case analysis and provide guidance on how to estimate it. We derive the bias for the non-parametric heavy-tailed order statistics and contrast it with the semi-parametric extreme value theory (EVT) approach.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C01,
C1,
C14,
C5,
C58
How Long Does It Take You to Pay? A Duration Study of Canadian Retail Transaction Payment Times
Staff Working Paper 2018-46
Geneviève Vallée
Using an exclusive data set of payment times for retail transactions made in Canada, I show that cash is the most time-efficient method of payment (MOP) when compared with payments by debit and credit cards. I model payment efficiency using Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for consumer choice of MOP.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C25,
C3,
C36,
C4,
C41,
D,
D2,
D23,
E,
E4,
E41,
E42