Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1306
result(s)
Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours
Staff Working Paper 2018-60
Erhao Xie
This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C57,
L,
L1,
L13,
L8,
L85
The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?
Staff Working Paper 2018-59
Xiaodan Gao,
Shaofeng Xu
We document countercyclical corporate saving behavior with the degree of countercyclicality varying nonmonotonically with firm size. We then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to explain the pattern and study its implications for business cycles.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E20,
E22,
E3,
E32,
G,
G3,
G31,
G32
Should the Central Bank Issue E-money?
Staff Working Paper 2018-58
Charles M. Kahn,
Francisco Rivadeneyra,
Tsz-Nga Wong
Should a central bank take over the provision of e-money, a circulable electronic liability? We discuss how e-money technology changes the tradeoff between public and private provision, and the tradeoff between e-money and a central bank's existing liabilities like bank notes and reserves.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial services,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E51,
E58
The Trade War in Numbers
Staff Working Paper 2018-57
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Anthony Landry
We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F11,
F13,
F14,
F15,
F5,
F50,
F6,
F62,
F68
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2018-56
Lutz Kilian,
Xiaoqing Zhou
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Housing,
International topics,
Labour markets,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
F,
F4,
F43,
Q,
Q3,
Q33,
Q4,
Q43,
R,
R1,
R12,
R3,
R31
Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?
Staff Working Paper 2018-55
Toni Ahnert,
Kristin Forbes,
Christian Friedrich,
Dennis Reinhardt
Can macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations on banks reduce the financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities created by borrowing in foreign currency? To evaluate the effectiveness and unintended consequences of macroprudential FX regulations, we develop a parsimonious model of bank and market lending in domestic and foreign currency and derive four predictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Financial institutions,
Financial system regulation and policies,
International financial markets
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F32,
F34,
G,
G1,
G15,
G2,
G21,
G28
Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests
Staff Working Paper 2018-54
Maarten van Oordt
How much capital do banks need as a buffer to absorb severe shocks? By using historical stock market data, market-based stress tests help estimate the magnitude of capital buffers necessary to absorb severe but plausible shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G21,
G28
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China
Staff Working Paper 2018-53
Huixin Bi,
Yongquan Cao,
Wei Dong
This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Fiscal policy,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E6,
E62
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts
Staff Working Paper 2018-52
Julien Champagne,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Rodrigo Sekkel
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E37