Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1306
result(s)
Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains
Staff Working Paper 2019-19
Yuko Imura
This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Firm dynamics,
International topics,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F12,
F13,
F4,
F41
Entrepreneurial Incentives and the Role of Initial Coin Offerings
Staff Working Paper 2019-18
Rodney J. Garratt,
Maarten van Oordt
Initial coin offerings (ICOs) are a new mode of financing start-ups that saw an explosion in popularity in 2017 but declined in popularity in the second half of 2018 as regulatory pressure, instances of fraud and reports of poor performance began to undermine their reputation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
G,
G3,
G32
Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports
Staff Working Paper 2019-17
Thierry Mayer,
Walter Steingress
This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Exchange rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F11,
F12,
F3,
F31,
F32
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects
Staff Working Paper 2019-16
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit risk management,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C23,
C25,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G24
Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union
Staff Working Paper 2019-15
Daniela Hauser,
Martin Seneca
The optimal currency literature has stressed the importance of labor mobility as a precondition for the success of monetary unions. But only a few studies formally link labor mobility to macroeconomic adjustment and policy. In this paper, we study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions that share trade links and a common monetary framework.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy framework,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52,
F,
F4
Firm-level Investment Under Imperfect Capital Markets in Ukraine
Staff Working Paper 2019-14
Oleksandr Shcherbakov
This paper develops and estimates a model of firm-level fixed capital investment when
firms face borrowing constraints.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C61,
C63,
D,
D2,
D24,
G,
G3,
G31
The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable
Staff Working Paper 2019-13
Dany Brouillette,
Marie-Noëlle Robitaille,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot,
Pierre St-Amant,
Bassirou Gueye,
Elise Nelson
In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
C53,
E,
E2,
E24,
E27
Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States
Staff Working Paper 2019-12
David Albouy,
Alex Chernoff,
Chandler Lutz,
Casey Warman
We examine local labor markets in the United States and Canada from 1990 to 2011 using comparable household and business data. Wage levels and inequality rise with city population in both countries, albeit less in Canada.
Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?
Staff Working Paper 2019-11
Klaus Adam,
Dmitry Matveev,
Stefan Nagel
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Economic models,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G12