Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1306
result(s)
Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan
Staff Working Paper 2024-7
Brantly Callaway,
Tong Li,
Joel Rodrigue,
Yuya Sasaki,
Yong Tan
We study the degree to which China’s 11th Five-Year Plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C21,
D,
D2,
D24,
Q,
Q5,
Q53
Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses
Staff Working Paper 2024-6
Radoslav Raykov
Do banks realize simultaneous trading losses because they invest in the same assets, or because different assets are subject to the same macro shocks? This paper decomposes the comovements of bank trading losses into two orthogonal channels: portfolio overlap and common shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G11,
G2,
G20
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2024-5
Tao Wang
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31,
E7,
E71
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices
Staff Working Paper 2024-4
Jiaqi Li,
Andrew Usher,
Yu Zhu
To what extent does a central bank digital currency (CBDC) compete with bank deposits? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a structural model where each household chooses which financial institution to deposit their digital money with.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E50,
E58
The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission
Staff Working Paper 2024-3
Jing Cynthia Wu,
Yinxi Xie,
Ji Zhang
We propose an open-economy New Keynesian model with financial integration that allows financial intermediaries to hold foreign long-term bonds. We study the implications of financial integration on monetary policy transmission. Among various aspects of financial integration, the bond duration plays a major role. These results hold for conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
International financial markets,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F36,
F4,
F42
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending
Staff Working Paper 2024-2
Phoebe Tian
This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D83,
D86,
G,
G2,
G21,
L,
L1,
L14,
L2,
L26
Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans
Staff Working Paper 2024-1
Shihan Xie,
Victoria Wenxin Xie,
Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Credit and credit aggregates
JEL Code(s):
G,
G5,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
Staff Working Paper 2023-63
Olena Kostyshyna,
Luba Petersen
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C93,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
E59,
E7
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas
We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Housing,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E5,
E52,
R,
R0,
R00