Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
Classical Decomposition of Markowitz Portfolio Selection
Staff Working Paper 2020-21
Christopher Demone,
Olivia Di Matteo,
Barbara Collignon
In this study, we enhance Markowitz portfolio selection with graph theory for the analysis of two portfolios composed of either EU or US assets. Using a threshold-based decomposition of their respective covariance matrices, we perturb the level of risk in each portfolio and build the corresponding sets of graphs.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C02
Trading on Long-term Information
Staff Working Paper 2020-20
Corey Garriott,
Ryan Riordan
Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G14,
G2,
G20,
L,
L1
The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2020-19
Bruno Feunou,
Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin,
Roméo Tedongap,
Lai Xu
We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers
Staff Working Paper 2020-18
Katya Kartashova,
Xiaoqing Zhou
We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
D14,
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
G,
G2,
G21,
R,
R3,
R31
Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation
Staff Working Paper 2020-17
Xing Guo
This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E22,
G,
G3,
G31,
G32
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
Staff Working Paper 2020-16
Danilo Leiva-Leon,
Luis Uzeda
We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices
Staff Working Paper 2020-15
Bo Young Chang,
Greg Orosi
A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G13,
G3,
G33
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields
Staff Working Paper 2020-14
Guihai Zhao
This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
G,
G0,
G00,
G1,
G12
Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
Staff Working Paper 2020-13
Fabio Ghironi,
Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International financial markets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
F,
F2,
F21,
F3,
F32,
G,
G1,
G15