Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2021-4
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Julia Schaumburg,
Tatevik Sekhposyan
We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C18,
C2,
C21,
C5,
C53,
E,
E4,
E43,
E44,
E5,
E52
Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds
Staff Working Paper 2021-3
Jeannine Bailliu,
Xinfen Han,
Barbara Sadaba,
Mark Kruger
What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C63,
E,
E5,
E52,
E58
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19
Staff Working Paper 2021-2
James Chapman,
Ajit Desai
We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C55,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E52
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown
Staff Working Paper 2021-1
Lin Shao,
Rongsheng Tang
In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E23,
O,
O4,
O47
Consumer Credit with Over-optimistic Borrowers
Staff Working Paper 2020-57
Florian Exler,
Igor Livshits,
James (Jim) C. MacGee,
Michèle Tertilt
When lenders cannot directly identify behavioural and rational borrowers, they use type scoring to track the likelihood of a borrower’s type. This leads to the partial pooling of borrowers, which results in rational borrowers subsidizing borrowing costs for behavioural borrowers. This, in turn, reduces the effectiveness of regulatory policies that target mistakes by behavioural borrowers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Credit risk management,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E4,
E49,
G,
G1,
G18,
K,
K3,
K35
Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage
Staff Working Paper 2020-56
Marie-Hélène Felt
Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C33,
D,
D1,
D12,
E,
E4,
E41
Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service
Staff Working Paper 2020-55
Lerby Ergun,
Andreas Uthemann
We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
D,
D5,
D53,
D8,
D83,
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic
Staff Working Paper 2020-54
Serdar Birinci,
Fatih Karahan,
Yusuf Mercan,
Kurt See
We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Fiscal policy,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E6,
E62,
J,
J6,
J64
Safe Payments
Staff Working Paper 2020-53
Jonathan Chiu,
Mohammad Davoodalhosseini,
Janet Hua Jiang,
Yu Zhu
In a cashless economy, would the private sector invest in the optimal level of safety in a deposit-based payment system? In general, because of externalities, the answer is no. While the private sector could over- or under-invest in safety, the government can use taxes or subsidies to correct private incentives.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial institutions,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E50,
G,
G2,
G21