Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1302
result(s)
Safe Payments
Staff Working Paper 2020-53
Jonathan Chiu,
Mohammad Davoodalhosseini,
Janet Hua Jiang,
Yu Zhu
In a cashless economy, would the private sector invest in the optimal level of safety in a deposit-based payment system? In general, because of externalities, the answer is no. While the private sector could over- or under-invest in safety, the government can use taxes or subsidies to correct private incentives.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial institutions,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E50,
G,
G2,
G21
The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada
Staff Working Paper 2020-52
Charles Bellemare,
Rolande Kpekou Tossou,
Kevin Moran
We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C33,
D,
D8,
D83,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31
The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings
Staff Working Paper 2020-51
James (Jim) C. MacGee,
Thomas Michael Pugh,
Kurt See
The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
G,
G5,
G51
A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation
Staff Working Paper 2020-50
Antonio Diez de los Rios
We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
H,
H0,
I,
I1
Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union
Staff Working Paper 2020-49
Serdar Kabaca,
Renske Maas,
Kostas Mavromatis,
Romanos Priftis
How should a central bank conduct quantitative easing (QE) in a monetary union when regions differ in their size and portfolio characteristics? Optimal QE policy suggests allocating greater purchases from the region that faces stronger portfolio frictions, and not necessarily according to each region’s size.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58
Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange
Staff Working Paper 2020-48
Jonathan Chiu,
Miguel Molico
We study the short-run effects of monetary policy using a search-theoretic monetary model in which agents are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate monetary shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E5,
E50
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?
Staff Working Paper 2020-47
Serdar Birinci,
Kurt See
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Fiscal policy,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32,
J,
J6,
J64,
J65
Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill
Staff Working Paper 2020-46
Lance Lochner,
Youngmin Park
How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C33,
J,
J2,
J24,
J6,
J62
Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors
Staff Working Paper 2020-45
Yunjong Eo,
Luis Uzeda,
Benjamin Wong
The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52