Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1330
result(s)
Monetary Policy Transmission to Small Business Loan Performance: Evidence from Loan-Level Data
Staff Working Paper 2024-41
Rodrigo Sekkel,
Tamon Takamura,
Yaz Terajima
We analyze the dynamic and heterogeneous responses of small-business loan performance to a monetary-policy shock using loan-level data in Canada. We find evidence of monetary policy transmission through the cash-flow channel and the aggregate demand channel as well as some, though limited, impact of collateral to discipline loan repayment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52
Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity
Staff Working Paper 2024-40
James Cabral,
Walter Steingress
The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
J,
J6,
J61,
R,
R2,
R23,
R3,
R31
From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2024-39
Felipe Alves,
Giovanni L. Violante
We explore the long-run effects of a monetary policy shock in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model built on the micro evidence that job losses lead to persistently lower individual earnings through a combination of skill decay and abandonment of the labour force.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52,
J,
J2,
J24,
J6,
J64
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?
Staff Working Paper 2024-38
Jing Cynthia Wu,
Yinxi Xie,
Ji Zhang
We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E63
An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech
Staff Working Paper 2024-37
Pablo Ottonello,
Wenting Song,
Sebastian Sotelo
We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Market structure and pricing,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
D6,
D63,
G,
G4,
G41,
L,
L1,
L11,
L2,
L20
Consumer Credit Regulation and Lender Market Power
Staff Working Paper 2024-36
Zachary Bethune,
Joaquín Saldain,
Eric R. Young
We investigate the welfare consequences of consumer credit regulation in a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model with endogenous lender market power. Lenders post credit offers and borrowers—some informed and others uninformed—apply for credit. We calibrate the model to match characteristics of the unsecured consumer credit market and use the calibrated model to evaluate interest rate ceilings.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D15,
D4,
D43,
D6,
D60,
D8,
D83,
E,
E2,
E21,
G,
G5,
G51
Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies?
Staff Working Paper 2024-35
Jonathan Chiu,
Cyril Monnet
This paper explores the implications of introducing digital public and private monies (e.g. tokenized central bank digital currency [CBDC] or tokenized deposits) for stablecoins and illicit crypto transactions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E50,
E58
Estimating the Portfolio-Balance Effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program
Staff Working Paper 2024-34
Antonio Diez de los Rios
Using a novel dynamic portfolio balance model of the yield curve for Government of Canada bonds, I find that the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Central bank research,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
G,
G1,
G12,
H,
H6,
H63
Household Food Inflation in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2024-33
Olena Kostyshyna,
Maude Ouellet
We study food inflation rates for Canadian households during periods of low and high inflation from 2012Q4 to 2023Q4. Households experienced more varied inflation rates during the recent high inflation. Cumulative food inflation has been 2.2 percentage points higher for lower-income households than for highest-income households since the inflation surge.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E30,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81