Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1323
result(s)
The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey
Staff Working Paper 2021-57
Alexander Hodbod,
Cars Hommes,
Stefanie J. Huber,
Isabelle Salle
A multi-country consumer survey investigates why and how much households decreased their consumption in five key sectors after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted in Europe in July 2020. Beyond infection risk and precautionary saving motives, households also reported not missing some consumption items, which may indicate preference shifts and structural changes in the post-COVID-19 economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Domestic demand and components,
Firm dynamics,
Fiscal policy,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
D8,
D81,
D84,
E,
E2,
E21,
E6,
E60,
E7,
E71
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving?
Staff Working Paper 2021-56
Malik Shukayev,
Alexander Ueberfeldt
Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
D,
D6,
D62,
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
G,
G0,
G01
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
Staff Working Paper 2021-55
Sushant Acharya,
Edouard Challe,
Keshav Dogra
We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E30,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E62,
E63
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases
Staff Working Paper 2021-54
Xu Zhang
I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
G,
G0
What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment
Staff Working Paper 2021-53
Isabelle Salle
In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C92,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E7
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data
Staff Working Paper 2021-52
Alberto Cavallo,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
E37
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight
Staff Working Paper 2021-51
Michael Woodford,
Yinxi Xie
How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E63,
E7
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market
Staff Working Paper 2021-50
Radoslav Raykov
This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G20
Job Applications and Labour Market Flows
Staff Working Paper 2021-49
Serdar Birinci,
Kurt See,
Shu Lin Wee
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J6,
J63,
J64