Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1302
result(s)
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter
Staff Working Paper 2021-36
Dmitry Matveev,
Francisco Ruge-Murcia
Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F13,
F3,
F31
Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions
Staff Working Paper 2021-35
Grzegorz Halaj,
Sofia Priazhkina
Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C63,
C7,
C72,
G,
G2,
G21
The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation
Staff Working Paper 2021-34
Sushant Acharya,
Keshav Dogra
The secular decline in real interest rates has created a challenge for monetary policy, now confronting the zero lower bound more often. An increase in the supply of safe assets reduces downward pressure on the natural interest rate. This allows monetary policy to reach price stability and full employment, but not without cost—permanently lower investment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E4,
E5,
G,
G1,
H,
H6
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations
Staff Working Paper 2021-33
Sushant Acharya,
Jess Benhabib,
Zhen Huo
We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E32,
F,
F4,
F44
The Effects of Government Licensing on E-commerce: Evidence from Alibaba
Staff Working Paper 2021-32
Ginger Zhe Jin,
Zhentong Lu,
Xiaolu Zhou,
Chunxiao Li
How does government licensing affect selling on online platforms? We examine the impact of China’s 2015 Food Safety Law on sellers and buyers on Alibaba, the largest e-commerce platform in that country.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Market structure and pricing,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
K,
K2,
K23,
L,
L5,
L8,
L81
An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets
Staff Working Paper 2021-31
Jelena Zivanovic
How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Credit risk management,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E30,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E50
Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity
Staff Working Paper 2021-30
Toni Ahnert,
David Martinez-Miera
How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Wholesale funding
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G21
A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks
Staff Working Paper 2021-29
Xu Zhang
Combining various high frequency financial data with central bank projections, I construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks not predictable by the public information preceding a central bank’s announcements. I then study the causal effects of monetary policy on the macro economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
G,
G0
Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation
Staff Working Paper 2021-28
Heng Chen,
Matthew Strathearn,
Marcel Voia
The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21,
R,
R2,
R22