Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1320
result(s)
Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism
Staff Working Paper 1998-7
Walter Engert,
Jack Selody
An important challenge facing central banks is making decisions under uncertainty about the dynamic effects of monetary policy actions. The authors stress the importance of explicitly recognizing uncertainty about the transmission mechanism when formulating policy advice. They argue that one way to manage monetary policy under uncertainty is to draw on both an output-gap paradigm […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5
Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two
Staff Working Paper 1998-6
Walter Engert,
Scott Hendry
A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by Hendry […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary aggregates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C5,
E,
E3,
E4,
E5
Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach
Staff Working Paper 1998-5
Joseph Atta-Mensah,
Greg Tkacz
This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E43
A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions
Staff Working Paper 1998-4
Pierre St-Amant,
David Tessier
In a recent article, Faust and Leeper (1997) discuss reasons why inference from structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions may not be reliable. In this paper, the authors argue that there are reasons to believe that Faust and Leeper's arguments are not devastating in practice. First, simulation exercises suggest that this approach does well when […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3
Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis
Staff Working Paper 1998-3
Pierre St-Amant,
David Tessier
The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […]
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy
Staff Working Paper 1998-2
Patrick Osakwe,
Shouyong Shi
Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
J,
J6
Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence
Staff Working Paper 1998-1
Patrick Osakwe
A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics
JEL Code(s):
J,
J4,
O,
O1,
Q,
Q1
Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach
Staff Working Paper 1997-19
Iris Claus
Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22
A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States
Staff Working Paper 1997-20
Iris Claus
A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31