Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1306
result(s)
Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2000-10
James Yetman
The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58
Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets
Staff Working Paper 2000-9
René Garcia,
Maral Kichian
The observed predictability of excess returns in equity and foreign exchange markets has largely been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premiums in these markets. For example, excess equity returns were found to be explained by various financial and economic variables.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
F,
F3,
F31,
G,
G1,
G12,
G15
Testing the Pricing-to-Market Hypothesis: Case of the Transportation Equipment Industry
Staff Working Paper 2000-8
Lynda Khalaf,
Maral Kichian
Pricing-to-market (PTM) theory suggests that monopolistic firms which export adjust their destination-specific markups in reaction to exchange rate shocks. These adjustments limit changes in the price of their exports.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C15,
L,
L1,
L11,
L16
Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes
Staff Working Paper 2000-7
Greg Tkacz
Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
E,
E3,
E31
Some Explorations, Using Canadian Data, of the S-Variable in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (1996)
Staff Working Paper 2000-6
Seamus Hogan,
Lise Pichette
A number of authors have suggested that economies face a long-run inflation-unemployment trade-off due to downward nominal-wage rigidity. This theory has implications for the nature of the short-run Phillips curve when wage inflation is low.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
E,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E50
Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator
Staff Working Paper 2000-5
Greg Tkacz
The debate on the order of integration of interest rates has long focused on the I(1) versus I(0) distinction. In this paper, we use instead the wavelet OLS estimator of Jensen (1999) to estimate the fractional integration parameters of several interest rates for the United States and Canada from 1948 to 1999.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C13,
E,
E4,
E43
Quelques résultats empiriques relatifs à l'évolution du taux de change Canada/États-Unis
Staff Working Paper 2000-4
Ramdane Djoudad,
David Tessier
This paper explores the extent to which factors other than commodity and energy prices may have contributed to the Canadian dollar's depreciation since the early 1970s. The variables considered include among others budgetary conditions and productivity.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31
Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada
Staff Working Paper 2000-3
Gilles Bérubé,
Denise Côté
This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E2,
E21
GAUSS™ Programs for the Estimation of State-Space Models with ARCH Errors: A User's Guide
Staff Working Paper 2000-2
Maral Kichian
State-space models have long been popular in explaining the evolution of various economic variables. This is mainly because they generally have more economic content than do others in their class of parsimonious models (for example, VARs). Yet, in spite of their advantages, use of these models until recently was limited by the assumption that all […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C8,
C82,
C87,
C89