Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?
We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap.
Staff discussion papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.
Content older than 10 years is available on the Bank’s Open Access Repository.
291
result(s)
Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-13
Iskander Karibzhanov
How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Economic models,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
D,
D3,
D31,
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J3,
J31
2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12
James Bootsma,
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
Christopher Hajzler,
Argyn Toktamyssov
This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E43,
E5,
E50,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F41
Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-11
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
James (Jim) C. MacGee
From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-10
Xin Scott Chen,
Ali Jaffery,
Guillaume Nolin,
Karim Salhab,
Peter Shannon,
Subrata Sarker
This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9
Francisco Rivadeneyra,
Nellie Zhang
As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial services,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E58
2019 Cash Alternative Survey Results
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-8
Kim Huynh,
Gradon Nicholls,
Mitchell Nicholson
The role of cash in Canadians’ lives has been evolving, as innovations in digital payments have become more widely adopted over the past decade. We contribute to the Bank of Canada’s research on central bank digital currency by monitoring Canadians’ use of cash and their adoption of digital payment methods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C9,
E,
E4,
O,
O5,
O51
Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-7
Robert Amano,
Thomas J. Carter,
Lawrence L. Schembri
We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58
Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the pandemic on demand for and use of cash
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-6
Heng Chen,
Walter Engert,
Kim Huynh,
Gradon Nicholls,
Mitchell Nicholson,
Julia Zhu
Consumer spending declined significantly during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This negative shock likely reduced spending across all methods of payment (cash, debit, credit, etc.). The mix of payment methods consumers use could also be affected. We study how the pandemic has influenced the demand for and use of cash. We also offer insights into the use of other payment methods, such as debit and credit cards.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Central bank research,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C9,
E,
E4,
O,
O5,
O54
The Market for Acquiring Card Payments from Small and Medium-Sized Canadian Merchants
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-5
Angelika Welte,
Jozsef Molnar
This note uses industry data and a unique dataset of small and medium-sized merchants to provide insights into the acquirer-merchant market in Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial services,
Market structure and pricing,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
D,
D2,
E,
E4,
E42