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284
result(s)
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-7
Stefano Gnocchi,
Fanny McKellips,
Rodrigo Sekkel,
Laure Simon,
Yinxi Xie,
Yang Zhang
We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model
Staff Analytical Note 2024-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean Garry Junior Roc,
Yang Zhang
We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E37,
E5,
E52,
E6
Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-5
Chinara Azizova,
Jonathan Witmer,
Xu Zhang
In March 2020, the Bank of Canada implemented the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, eventually purchasing approximately $340 billion of government bonds. In this paper, we analyze the impact of this program on financial market prices and yields as well as on GDP and inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data
Staff Working Paper 2024-20
Patrick Alexander,
Lu Han,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Ben Tomlin
We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D43,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L1,
L13,
L8,
L81
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals
Staff Working Paper 2024-14
Olena Kostyshyna,
Tolga Özden,
Yang Zhang
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E0,
E00,
E4,
E47,
E7
Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata
Staff Analytical Note 2024-6
Olga Bilyk,
Mikael Khan,
Olena Kostyshyna
Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L1,
L11
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2024-5
Tao Wang
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31,
E7,
E71
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
Staff Working Paper 2023-63
Olena Kostyshyna,
Luba Petersen
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C93,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
E59,
E7
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
Staff Analytical Note 2023-17
Julien Champagne,
Erik Ens,
Xing Guo,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Alexander Lam,
Corinne Luu,
Sarah Miller,
Patrick Sabourin,
Joshua Slive,
Temel Taskin,
Jaime Trujillo,
Shu Lin Wee
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
A,
A1,
A10,
E,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E31,
J,
J1,
J11,
J15