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156
result(s)
Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata
Staff Analytical Note 2024-23
Fares Bounajm,
Tessa Devakos,
Gabriela Galassi
When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C31,
J,
J2,
J21,
J3,
J30,
J31,
J8,
J82
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment
Staff Working Paper 2024-32
Thibaut Duprey,
Soojin Jo,
Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Labour markets,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C33,
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J3,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model
Staff Analytical Note 2024-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean Garry Junior Roc,
Yang Zhang
We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E37,
E5,
E52,
E6
Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth
Staff Working Paper 2024-21
Giulio Fella,
Martin B. Holm,
Thomas Michael Pugh
We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Housing,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D11,
D12,
D14,
E,
E2,
E21
Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach
Staff Analytical Note 2024-12
Dany Brouillette,
Tessa Devakos,
Raven Wheesk
We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Digitalization,
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D24,
J,
J1,
J11,
O,
O3,
O33,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2024-11
Tessa Devakos,
Christopher Hajzler,
Stephanie Houle,
Craig Johnston,
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Ron Rautu,
Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update
Staff Analytical Note 2024-8
Erik Ens,
Alexander Lam,
Kurt See,
Gabriela Galassi
We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
J,
J2,
J3,
J6
Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-60
Agostina Brinatti,
Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F16,
F2,
F22,
J,
J6,
J61
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
Staff Analytical Note 2023-17
Julien Champagne,
Erik Ens,
Xing Guo,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Alexander Lam,
Corinne Luu,
Sarah Miller,
Patrick Sabourin,
Joshua Slive,
Temel Taskin,
Jaime Trujillo,
Shu Lin Wee
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
A,
A1,
A10,
E,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E31,
J,
J1,
J11,
J15