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786
result(s)
Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic
Staff Analytical Note 2022-17
Mikael Khan,
Elyse Sullivan
We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C18,
E,
E3,
E31
Examining recent revisions to CPI-common
Staff Analytical Note 2022-15
Elyse Sullivan
Unusually large revisions to CPI-common in recent months stem from increased common movements across consumer price index components amid broad inflationary pressures. With recent revisions, CPI-common is more closely aligned with the Bank of Canada’s other two preferred measures of core inflation. However, caution is necessary when interpreting real-time estimates of CPI-common in the current environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C13,
C18,
E,
E3,
E31
Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model
Technical Report No. 122
Gabriel Bruneau,
Thibaut Duprey,
Ruben Hipp
We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C52,
C53,
G,
G1,
G17,
G2,
G21,
G28
Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance
Staff Analytical Note 2022-13
Vivian Chu,
Yang Zhang
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E5,
E52,
E58
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
Staff Working Paper 2022-41
Paul Beaudry,
Thomas J. Carter,
Amartya Lahiri
When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E65
Sectoral Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2022-38
Efrem Castelnuovo,
Kerem Tuzcuoglu,
Luis Uzeda
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
C55,
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44
Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the pre-pandemic 2020 Wage-Setting Survey
Staff Analytical Note 2022-10
David Amirault,
Sarah Miller,
Matthieu Verstraete
Just before the pandemic began, the Bank of Canada conducted the 2020 Wage-Setting Survey. The goal was to explore the unusual trend of subdued wage growth in 2018 and 2019 despite a tightening in the labour market. Although this wage puzzle was beginning to resolve at the time of the survey, results highlight changes in several factors that may have important impacts on wage dynamics.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
J,
J3,
J31,
J32,
J33,
J6,
J63
Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions
Staff Working Paper 2022-37
Martin Harding,
Rafael Wouters
Using a nonlinear New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, we show that financial frictions generate large state-dependent amplification effects. Shocks propagate more strongly in periods of financial stress. We propose an endogenous regime-switching DSGE framework for efficient estimation and improved model fit.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58
Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production
Staff Working Paper 2022-36
Johan Brannlund,
Geoffrey R. Dunbar,
Reinhard Ellwanger,
Matthew Krutkiewicz
Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Climate change,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C23,
Q,
Q4,
Q40,
Q48,
Q5,
Q54