Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data
Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
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2460
result(s)
Entrepreneurial Incentives and the Role of Initial Coin Offerings
Staff Working Paper 2019-18
Rodney J. Garratt,
Maarten van Oordt
Initial coin offerings (ICOs) are a new mode of financing start-ups that saw an explosion in popularity in 2017 but declined in popularity in the second half of 2018 as regulatory pressure, instances of fraud and reports of poor performance began to undermine their reputation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
G,
G3,
G32
Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports
Staff Working Paper 2019-17
Thierry Mayer,
Walter Steingress
This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Exchange rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F11,
F12,
F3,
F31,
F32
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019
Staff Analytical Note 2019-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean-Philippe Cayen,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Kristina Hess,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects
Staff Working Paper 2019-16
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Credit risk management,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C23,
C25,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G24
Financial Distress and Hedging: Evidence from Canadian Oil Firms
Staff Discussion Paper 2019-4
Kun Mo,
Farrukh Suvankulov,
Sophie Griffiths
The paper explores the link between financial distress and the commodity price hedging behaviour of Canadian oil firms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
G,
G3,
G32,
Q,
Q4,
Q40
Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales
Staff Analytical Note 2019-12
Mikael Khan,
Taylor Webley
We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E2,
R,
R2,
R21
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update
Staff Analytical Note 2019-11
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
José Dorich
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E43,
E5,
E50,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F41
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment
Staff Analytical Note 2019-10
Dany Brouillette,
Julien Champagne,
Carol Khoury,
Natalia Kyui,
Jeffrey Mollins,
Youngmin Park
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E00,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
E3,
E37,
E6
Could Canadian Bond Funds Add Stress to the Financial System?
Staff Analytical Note 2019-9
Rohan Arora,
Guillaume Bédard-Pagé,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Ryan Shotlander
We create a hypothetical scenario to study the role bond funds play in intensifying shocks to the financial system. Using data from 2018 and 2007, we find that bond funds play a larger role now than they did in the past.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G2,
G20,
G23