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786
result(s)
December 22, 2005
70 Years of Central Banking: The Bank of Canada in an International Context, 1935–2005
Bordo and Redish examine the evolution of central banking over the past 70 years and identify periods where Canada was either a notable innovator with regard to central banking practices or appeared to be following a slightly different course. They note that global forces seemed to play an important role in determining inflation outcomes throughout the 70-year period, and that Canada and the United States experienced roughly similar inflation rates despite some important differences in their monetary policy regimes. Canada, for example, was comparatively late in establishing a central bank, launching the Bank of Canada long after most other industrial countries had one. Canada also operated under a flexible exchange rate through much of the Bretton Woods period, unlike any other country in the 1950s and early 1960s; adopted inflation targets well before most other central banks; and introduced a number of other innovative changes with regard to the implementation of monetary policy in the 1990s.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy framework
Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?
Staff Working Paper 2005-44
Frédérick Demers,
Annie De Champlain
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
E,
E3,
E37
The 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program in Retrospect
Staff Working Paper 2005-43
John Sargent
The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E63,
E64,
E65
December 2, 2005
From Flapper to Bluestocking: What Happened to the Young Woman of Wellington Street?
Helliwell traces the changes that have occurred at the Bank of Canada since the early 1960s, when he first began a long and extensive relationship with the institution and its staff. He begins with his work on the Royal Commission on Banking and Finance (the Porter Commission) and continues over the next 40 years, giving particular focus to the Bank's analytic and research activities. Although he is careful to note the benefits of alternative analytical and information-gathering techniques, such as the extensive mail and direct interview survey that he and his colleagues conducted as part of the Royal Commission, Helliwell devotes most of his attention to the Bank's econometric modelling efforts, starting with RDX1 and RDX2 in the late 1960s and early 1970s. He cites some of the internal, as well as external, obstacles that had to be overcome as the Bank's modelling efforts advanced, and how shifting trends in the economics profession have sometimes posed a challenge. Helliwell concludes that these developments helped the Bank to come of age and take its place in the front ranks of the world's evidence-based policy-research institutions.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models
Measurement Bias in the Canadian Consumer Price Index
Staff Working Paper 2005-39
James Rossiter
The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used measure of inflation in Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
Technical Report No. 96
Marc-André Gosselin,
René Lalonde
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E1,
E17,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E37,
F,
F1,
F17
The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2005-34
Christopher Ragan
The author provides a non-technical explanation of the role played by the exchange rate in Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E50,
E52,
F,
F4,
F41
Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
Staff Working Paper 2005-31
Frédérick Demers,
David Dupuis
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C53,
E,
E1,
E17
October 25, 2005
Exports, Imports, and the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar
An objective assessment of the effects of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 on exports and imports requires a detailed review of the numerous other factors which may have been at play. Dion, Laurence, and Zheng discuss the influences that have affected Canada's international trade over the past two years, including exchange rate movements, global and sector-specific shocks, constraints on the domestic supply of a few products, and competition from emerging economies, most notably, China. The analysis is complemented with econometric models developed at the Bank which provide statistically valid estimates of the contribution of the Canadian-dollar appreciation to the recent developments in exports and imports.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Balance of payments and components,
Exchange rates,
International topics