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787
result(s)
June 15, 2007
Interpreting Canada's Productivity Performance in the Past Decade: Lessons from Recent Research
Dion examines the evolution of Canadian productivity since the mid-1990s, using the United States as a benchmark. During this period, trend productivity growth in Canada remained modest, whereas the U.S. witnessed a strong resurgence. Among the factors identified as potential root causes of Canada's lower productivity performance are a lower investment in information and communications technology, reallocation and adjustment costs associated with large relative price movements, and a weak demand for innovation.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Productivity,
Recent economic and financial developments
A vision for IMF Surveillance
Staff Working Paper 2007-37
Robert Lavigne,
Philipp Maier,
Eric Santor
The ongoing review of the IMF, initiated in 2005 by Managing Director De Rato, presents an excellent opportunity to re-examine the role, functions and governance of the Fund.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F33
Gold Prices and Inflation
Staff Working Paper 2007-35
Greg Tkacz
Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E44
Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment
Staff Working Paper 2007-34
Selim Elekdag,
René Lalonde,
Douglas Laxton,
Dirk Muir,
Paolo Pesenti
We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E6,
E66,
F,
F3,
F32,
F4,
F47
Optimal Monetary Policy and Price Stability Over the Long-Run
Staff Working Paper 2007-26
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Malik Shukayev,
Alexander Ueberfeldt
This paper examines the role of monetary policy in an environment with aggregate risk and incomplete markets. In a two-period overlapping-generations model with aggregate uncertainty and nominal bonds, optimal monetary policy attains the ex-ante Pareto optimal allocation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5
Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2007-18
Marc-André Gosselin
The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58
World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective
Staff Working Paper 2007-16
Brigitte Desroches,
Michael Francis
Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E4,
F,
F3
Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation
Staff Working Paper 2007-8
Frédérick Demers,
Calista Cheung
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E37
Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada
Staff Working Paper 2007-2
Rose Cunningham,
Ilan Kolet
Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C41,
E,
E3,
E32,
R,
R2,
R21