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156 result(s)

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update

We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

Adoption of Digital Technologies: Insights from a Global Survey Initiative

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-7 James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek, Lise Pichette
Firms are at the forefront of adopting new technology. Using survey data from a global network of central banks, we assess the effects of digitalization on firms’ pricing and employment decisions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, J, J2, J21, O, O3, O33

Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets

Staff Working Paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie
Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade.

Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform

Staff Working Paper 2021-15 Gabriela Galassi
How do firms change their employment decisions when tax benefits for low-earning workers are expanded? Some firms increase employment overall, whereas others replace high-earning workers with low-earning workers, according to German linked employer-employee data.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E64, H, H2, H20, H24, H3, H32, I, I3, I38, J, J2, J23, J3, J38

Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic

Staff Working Paper 2020-54 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See
We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss.

Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-13 Iskander Karibzhanov
How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J3, J31

How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.

Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment

After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments

Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
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