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786
result(s)
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls
Staff Working Paper 2023-37
Temel Taskin,
Franz Ulrich Ruch
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E32,
G,
G1,
G10
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13
Marc-André Gosselin,
Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Domestic demand and components,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C3,
E,
E3,
E5
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11
Naveen Rai,
Patrick Sabourin
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth
Staff Working Paper 2023-34
Elisa Giannone,
Qi Li,
Nuno Paixão,
Xinle Pang
We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide.
Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2023-29
Matteo Cacciatore,
Stefano Gnocchi,
Daniela Hauser
We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Domestic demand and components,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52,
J,
J2,
J22
An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy
Staff Working Paper 2023-27
Y.-H. Henry Chen,
Hossein Hosseini Jebeli,
Craig Johnston,
Sergey Paltsev,
Marie-Christine Tremblay
We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
International topics,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C68,
F,
F1,
H,
H2,
Q,
Q3,
Q37,
Q5
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2023-6
Julien Champagne,
Christopher Hajzler,
Dmitry Matveev,
Harlee Melinchuk,
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Galip Kemal Ozhan,
Youngmin Park,
Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023
Staff Analytical Note 2023-5
Salma Ahmed,
Aviel Avshalumov,
Tania Chaar,
Eshini Ekanayake,
Helen Lao,
Louis Poirier,
Jenna Rolland-Mills,
Argyn Toktamyssov,
Lin Xiang
We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
E4,
E5,
F,
F0,
O,
O4
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Support of Key Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-9
Joshua Fernandes,
Michael Mueller
The COVID-19 pandemic placed unprecedented strain on the global financial system. We describe how the Bank of Canada responded to the rapidly deteriorating liquidity in core Canadian fixed-income markets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E58,
G,
G0,
G01