Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach
How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?
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2435
result(s)
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil
Staff Working Paper 2020-39
Amor Aniss Benmoussa,
Reinhard Ellwanger,
Stephen Snudden
How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C5,
C53,
Q,
Q4,
Q47
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
Staff Working Paper 2020-38
Barbara Sadaba,
Sunčica Vujič,
Sofia Maier
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
I,
I2,
J,
J2
Predicting Payment Migration in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2020-37
Anneke Kosse,
Zhentong Lu,
Gabriel Xerri
Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
E,
E4,
E42,
G,
G1,
G2,
G28
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments
Staff Working Paper 2020-36
Elizabeth Caucutt,
Lance Lochner,
Joseph Mullins,
Youngmin Park
Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D13,
H,
H3,
H31,
J,
J2,
J22,
J24
What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?
Staff Analytical Note 2020-20
Kim Huynh,
Helen Lao,
Patrick Sabourin,
Angelika Welte
The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
E,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E52
The Canadian corporate investment gap
Staff Analytical Note 2020-19
Chris D'Souza,
Timothy Grieder,
Daniel Hyun,
Jonathan Witmer
Business investment has been lower than expected in Canada and abroad since the financial crisis of 2007–09. This corporate investment gap is mirrored in firms’ other financing decisions, as they have increased cash holdings and dividend payments and decreased issuance of debt and equity.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
D9,
D92,
G,
G3,
G31,
G32
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9
Francisco Rivadeneyra,
Nellie Zhang
As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial services,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E58
Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations?
Staff Working Paper 2020-35
Narayan Bulusu
Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
D,
D5,
D52,
E,
E5,
E58,
G,
G2,
G21
2019 Cash Alternative Survey Results
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-8
Kim Huynh,
Gradon Nicholls,
Mitchell Nicholson
The role of cash in Canadians’ lives has been evolving, as innovations in digital payments have become more widely adopted over the past decade. We contribute to the Bank of Canada’s research on central bank digital currency by monitoring Canadians’ use of cash and their adoption of digital payment methods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C9,
E,
E4,
O,
O5,
O51