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458
result(s)
May 13, 1998
Canada-U.S. long-term interest differentials in the 1990s
Long-term Canada-U.S. interest spreads have changed remarkably during the 1990s. The unusually wide spreads of the first half of the decade have given way to an unprecedented run of negative yield differentials. In this article, the author examines the conceptual aspects of yields on international assets and their application to the Canada-U.S. situation. Prior to 1995, investors were unsure that, over the long run, inflation would meet the targets set by the government and the Bank. Policy credibility was undermined by large budget deficits and political uncertainty. In the second half of the decade, confidence was re-established as the fiscal positions of governments improved, long-run price stability became established, and political concerns about Quebec lessened. As long as these fundamentals hold, long-term rates should remain relatively low, even when short-term rates rise.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates,
International topics
May 11, 1998
The use of forward rate agreements in Canada
In this article, the authors identify forward rate agreements, or FRAs, as short-term interest rate guarantee instruments negotiated by two parties, one of which is typically a bank. In outlining the main features of FRAs, the authors contrast them with BAX contracts (futures contracts on bankers' acceptances that are negotiated through the Montreal Exchange). The article then describes how market participants use FRAs to cover short-term interest rate risk. The final section deals with the way the Bank of Canada uses information from the FRA market as an indicator of interest rate expectations. Econometric models used to retrieve information from FRA rates, as well as the underlying assumptions, are discussed in an appendix.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Monetary and financial indicators
Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets
Staff Working Paper 1997-18
David Watt
This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43
Fads or Bubbles?
Staff Working Paper 1997-2
Huntley Schaller,
Simon van Norden
This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C40,
G,
G1,
G12
December 9, 1996
The Canadian market for zero-coupon bonds
A conventional bond is a debt instrument consisting of a series of periodic coupon payments plus the repayment of the principal at maturity. As the name suggests, a zero-coupon bond has no coupon payments. It has only a single payment consisting of the repayment of the principal at maturity. The zero-coupon bond is sold at a discount and then redeemed for its face value at maturity. The return to the investor is the difference between the face value of the bond and its discounted purchase price. In this article, the author examines the investment characteristics of zero-coupon bonds. In particular, a type of zero-coupon bond known as a strip bond is discussed. A strip bond is created by stripping coupon payments from conventional bonds. The strip bond market in Canada has grown substantially since the late 1980s and is now an integral part of Canadian fixed-income markets. As well, the opportunity to trade in the strip bond market improves the liquidity and efficiency of Canadian fixed-income markets, thus helping to reduce the overall cost of borrowing to the government.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets
November 10, 1996
The market for futures contracts on Canadian bankers' acceptances
The Montreal Exchange introduced futures contracts on 3-month Canadian bankers' acceptances, known as BAX, in 1988. In this article, the author explains the nature of this new instrument, which is bought and sold on the floor of the Exchange, and its role in hedging, speculation, and arbitrage. She briefly reviews the technical aspects of the market and explains the difference between BAX contracts and forward rate agreements. She also examines the market's rapid growth and its relationship to the market for treasury bills.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets
Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes
Staff Working Paper 1996-13
Simon van Norden,
Huntley Schaller
This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics."
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C40,
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G1,
G12
Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis
Staff Working Paper 1996-6
Stella Cheung
The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
H,
H6,
H63
Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach
Staff Working Paper 1996-1
Robert Vigfusson
Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C40,
G,
G1,
G12