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2380
result(s)
Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery?
Staff Analytical Note 2020-22
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Ryan Shotlander
Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity
Staff Working Paper 2020-42
Ruben Hipp
Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C58,
L,
L1,
L14
Security and convenience of a central bank digital currency
Staff Analytical Note 2020-21
Charles M. Kahn,
Francisco Rivadeneyra
An anonymous token-based central bank digital currency (CBDC) would pose certain security risks to users. These risks arise from how balances are aggregated, from their transactional use and from the competition between suppliers of aggregation solutions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
G,
G2,
G21
Interbank Asset-Liability Networks with Fire Sale Management
Staff Working Paper 2020-41
Zachary Feinstein,
Grzegorz Halaj
Raising liquidity when funding is stressed creates pressure on the financial market. Liquidating large quantities of assets depresses their prices and may amplify funding shocks. How do banks weathering a funding crisis contribute to contagion risk?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C62,
C63,
C7,
C72,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G11
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach
Staff Working Paper 2020-40
Christopher S. Sutherland
How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D83,
D84,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52,
E58
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil
Staff Working Paper 2020-39
Amor Aniss Benmoussa,
Reinhard Ellwanger,
Stephen Snudden
How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C5,
C53,
Q,
Q4,
Q47
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
Staff Working Paper 2020-38
Barbara Sadaba,
Sunčica Vujič,
Sofia Maier
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
I,
I2,
J,
J2
Predicting Payment Migration in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2020-37
Anneke Kosse,
Zhentong Lu,
Gabriel Xerri
Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
E,
E4,
E42,
G,
G1,
G2,
G28
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments
Staff Working Paper 2020-36
Elizabeth Caucutt,
Lance Lochner,
Joseph Mullins,
Youngmin Park
Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D13,
H,
H3,
H31,
J,
J2,
J22,
J24