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198
result(s)
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows
Staff Working Paper 2022-46
Julien Bengui,
Louphou Coulibaly
Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International financial markets,
International topics,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D6,
D62,
E,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F32,
F38,
F4,
F41
Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic
Staff Analytical Note 2022-17
Mikael Khan,
Elyse Sullivan
We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C18,
E,
E3,
E31
Examining recent revisions to CPI-common
Staff Analytical Note 2022-15
Elyse Sullivan
Unusually large revisions to CPI-common in recent months stem from increased common movements across consumer price index components amid broad inflationary pressures. With recent revisions, CPI-common is more closely aligned with the Bank of Canada’s other two preferred measures of core inflation. However, caution is necessary when interpreting real-time estimates of CPI-common in the current environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C13,
C18,
E,
E3,
E31
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models
Staff Working Paper 2022-42
Cars Hommes,
Kostas Mavromatis,
Tolga Özden,
Mei Zhu
We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
D,
D8,
D83,
D84,
E,
E3,
E6,
E62
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
Staff Working Paper 2022-41
Paul Beaudry,
Thomas J. Carter,
Amartya Lahiri
When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E65
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Staff Working Paper 2022-39
Denis Gorea,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Marianna Kudlyak
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
R,
R2,
R21,
R3,
R31
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?
Staff Working Paper 2022-34
Monica Jain,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Xu Zhang
This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
E3,
E31
Job Ladder and Business Cycles
Staff Working Paper 2022-14
Felipe Alves
During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D3,
D31,
D5,
D52,
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E32
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve
Staff Working Paper 2022-7
Christian Friedrich,
Peter Selcuk
Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
F,
F6