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The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Heterogeneous Plants: A Quantile Regression Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2010-25 Ben Tomlin, Loretta Fung
In this paper, we examine how the effect of movements in the real exchange rate on manufacturing plants depends on the plant's placement within the productivity distribution. Appreciations of the local currency expose domestic plants to more competition from abroad as export opportunities shrink and import competition intensifies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, F, F1, L, L1, L16, L6, L60

Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Plant Turnover and Productivity

Staff Working Paper 2010-18 Ben Tomlin
In a small open economy fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. An appreciation of the local currency increases the level of competition in the domestic market as import competition intensifies and export opportunities shrink, forcing less productive plants from the market and compelling new entrants to be more competitive than they otherwise would have been.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D24, L, L1, L11

International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia

Staff Working Paper 2010-14 Jesus Sierra
This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32, F34, G, G1, G11, G12, G15
June 9, 2010

Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?

Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy.

Idiosyncratic Coskewness and Equity Return Anomalies

Staff Working Paper 2010-11 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Jun Yang
In this paper, we show that in a model where investors have heterogeneous preferences, the expected return of risky assets depends on the idiosyncratic coskewness beta, which measures the co-movement of the individual stock variance and the market return.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11, G12, G14, G3, G33

Market Expectations and Option Prices: Evidence for the Can$/US$ Exchange Rate

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-2 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw
Security prices contain valuable information that can be used to make a wide variety of economic decisions. To extract this information, a model is required that relates market prices to the desired information, and that ideally can be implemented using timely and low-cost methods.

Search Frictions and Asset Price Volatility

Staff Working Paper 2010-1 B. Ravikumar, Enchuan Shao
We examine the quantitative effect of search frictions in product markets on asset price volatility. We combine several features from Shi (1997) and Lagos and Wright (2002) in a model without money. Households prefer special goods and general goods.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12

Market Timing of Long-Term Debt Issuance

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-14 Jonathan Witmer
The literature on market timing of long-term debt issuance yields mixed evidence that managers can successfully time their debt-maturity issuance. The early results that are indicative of debt-maturity timing are not robust to accounting for structural breaks or to other measures of debt maturity from firm-level data that account for call and put provisions in […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G30, G38
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