Find Bank of Canada research by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.
Receive notification by email whenever new research is added to the website.
282
result(s)
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7
Sarah Miller,
Patrick Sabourin
We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D80,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31
Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic
Staff Working Paper 2023-19
Serdar Kabaca,
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E31,
E32
Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages
Staff Working Paper 2023-16
Reinhard Ellwanger,
Hinnerk Gnutzmann,
Piotr Śpiewanowski
How are regional cost shocks passed through into global prices? We investigate the role of short-run capacity constraints and show that they can induce stark non-linearities in the pass-through. We highlight this effect for the market for ammonia, a commodity produced largely from natural gas.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
L,
L1,
L13,
L6,
L65,
Q,
Q4,
Q40,
Q5,
Q54
Firms’ inflation expectations and price-setting behaviour in Canada: Evidence from a business survey
Staff Analytical Note 2023-3
Ramisha Asghar,
James Fudurich,
Jane Voll
Canadian firms’ expectations for high inflation may be influencing their price setting, supporting strong price growth and delays in the transmission of monetary policy. Using data from the Business Outlook Survey, we investigate the reasons behind widespread price growth seen in Canada in 2021 and early 2022.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31
Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory
Staff Working Paper 2023-11
Janet Hua Jiang,
Daniela Puzzello,
Cathy Zhang
We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C92,
D,
D8,
D83,
E,
E4,
E40
The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-3
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
James (Jim) C. MacGee,
Luis Uzeda
The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective
Staff Working Paper 2023-5
Paul Beaudry,
Katya Kartashova,
Césaire Meh
Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E62,
G,
G5,
G51,
H,
H6
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?
Staff Working Paper 2022-52
Johan Brannlund,
Geoffrey R. Dunbar,
Reinhard Ellwanger
Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
Q,
Q3,
Q31,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model
Staff Working Paper 2022-51
Cars Hommes,
Mario He,
Sebastian Poledna,
Melissa Siqueira,
Yang Zhang
The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
D,
D2,
D22,
D8,
D83,
E,
E1,
E17