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787
result(s)
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018
Staff Analytical Note 2018-9
Richard Beard,
Anne-Katherine Cormier,
Michael Francis,
Katerina Gribbin,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
Christopher Hajzler,
James Ketcheson,
Kun Mo,
Louis Poirier,
Peter Selcuk,
Kristina Hess
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
Order Flow Segmentation, Liquidity and Price Discovery: The Role of Latency Delays
Staff Working Paper 2018-16
Michael Brolley,
David Cimon
Latency delays—known as “speed bumps”—are an intentional slowing of order flow by exchanges. Supporters contend that delays protect market makers from high-frequency arbitrage, while opponents warn that delays promote “quote fading” by market makers. We construct a model of informed trading in a fragmented market, where one market operates a conventional order book and the other imposes a latency delay on market orders.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G14,
G18
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models
Staff Working Paper 2018-14
Luis Uzeda
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C15,
C5,
C51,
C53
Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey
Staff Working Paper 2018-13
Patrick Alexander,
Louis Poirier
The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Domestic demand and components,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
E,
E2,
E21,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain
Staff Analytical Note 2018-5
Hanna Halaburda
The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Service sector
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
G,
G2,
O,
O3,
O33
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model
Staff Working Paper 2018-11
Stefan Hohberger,
Romanos Priftis,
Lukas Vogel
This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
F,
F4,
F41
Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?
Staff Analytical Note 2018-4
Maxime Leboeuf,
Daniel Hyun
This note investigates whether Canadian corporate spreads and the excess bond premium (EBP) lead Canadian economic activity. Indeed, we find that corporate spreads precede changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada over the subsequent year. The EBP accounts for most of this property. Further, an unanticipated increase in the Canadian EBP forecasts a deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions: a 10-basis-point increase results in a fall in both GDP and consumer price index (CPI) of 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, over three years.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
G,
G1,
G12
Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment
Staff Working Paper 2018-6
Xiaoqing Zhou
The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Economic models,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
E,
E2,
E3
What Drives Interbank Loans? Evidence from Canada
Staff Working Paper 2018-5
Narayan Bulusu,
Pierre Guérin
We identify the drivers of unsecured and collateralized loan volumes, rates and haircuts in Canada using the Bayesian model averaging approach to deal with model uncertainty. Our results suggest that the key friction driving behaviour in this market is the collateral reallocation cost faced by borrowers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Wholesale funding
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C55,
E,
E4,
E43,
G,
G2,
G23