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2380
result(s)
Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach
Staff Working Paper 1998-5
Joseph Atta-Mensah,
Greg Tkacz
This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E43
The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Stock
Technical Report No. 83
Brian O'Reilly
This paper surveys the empirical literature on the benefits of low inflation, emphasizing contributions since 1990. It follows the framework of a section in the Bank's 1990 Annual Report, "The benefits of price stability."
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Inflation: costs and benefits
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3
A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions
Staff Working Paper 1998-4
Pierre St-Amant,
David Tessier
In a recent article, Faust and Leeper (1997) discuss reasons why inference from structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions may not be reliable. In this paper, the authors argue that there are reasons to believe that Faust and Leeper's arguments are not devastating in practice. First, simulation exercises suggest that this approach does well when […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3
Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis
Staff Working Paper 1998-3
Pierre St-Amant,
David Tessier
The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […]
The Financial Services Sector: Past Changes and Future Prospects
Technical Report No. 82
Charles Freedman,
Clyde Goodlet
The financial services industry has been undergoing significant change in recent years. This paper analyzes some key developments affecting the industry and examines some important issues facing the industry and its regulators.
The Canadian Banking System
Technical Report No. 81
Charles Freedman
This paper examines the major changes in the Canadian banking system since the Second World War, with special attention paid to the differences between Canadian and U.S. developments over this period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy
Staff Working Paper 1998-2
Patrick Osakwe,
Shouyong Shi
Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
J,
J6
Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence
Staff Working Paper 1998-1
Patrick Osakwe
A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics
JEL Code(s):
J,
J4,
O,
O1,
Q,
Q1
December 14, 1997
Recent economic and financial developments
The Canadian economy expanded at an average rate of over 4 per cent through the second half of 1996 and the first three quarters of 1997. The expansion was supported by accommodative monetary conditions, substantial employment gains, low inflation, an improved fiscal postion, and strong U.S. demand. These factors will continue to underpin a scenario of sustained growth in output and employment in the period ahead. With the situation in Asia still evolving, it is difficult to be precise about the size of its overall impact on Canada. At the same time, there have been some positive developments including stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in the United States, Mexico, and Europe and declining longer-term interest rates in most industrial countries. The core rate of inflation slipped slightly below the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the closing months of 1997. With the unwinding of some of the special factors that contributed to the decline, trend inflation is expected to move back inside the range in coming months.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments