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786
result(s)
Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913
Staff Working Paper 2018-42
Ian Keay,
Patrick Alexander
In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
International topics,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F13,
F14,
F4,
F42,
F6,
F60,
N,
N7,
N71
Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective
Staff Analytical Note 2018-27
Taylor Webley
This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
F,
F1,
F19
Decomposing Canada’s Market Shares: An Update
Staff Analytical Note 2018-26
Nicholas Labelle
Building on the shift-share analysis of Barnett and Charbonneau (2015), this note decomposes Canada’s market shares in the United States, Europe and China for imports of non-energy goods into competitiveness, preference shifts and an interaction term. We find that, despite the depreciation of the dollar, Canada continued to lose market share over 2014–17 (around 0.4 percentage points lost per year on average over four years).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F10,
F14,
F4
The Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity
Staff Working Paper 2018-40
Shutao Cao,
Césaire Meh,
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull,
Yaz Terajima
We document that, across households, the money consumption ratio increases with age and decreases with consumption, and that there has been a large increase in the money consumption ratio during the recent era of very low interest rates. We construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model of money holdings for transaction purposes subject to age (older households use more money), cohort (younger generations are exposed to better transaction technology), and time effects (nominal interest rates affect money holdings).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation: costs and benefits
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E4,
E41
Sluggish Forecasts
Staff Working Paper 2018-39
Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E37
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-9
Tony Chernis,
Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52
The Impact of Government Debt Supply on Bond Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Market
Staff Working Paper 2018-35
Jeffrey Gao,
Jianjian Jin,
Jacob Thompson
This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Debt management,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
D,
D5,
D53,
G,
G1,
G12,
G18,
G2,
G3,
G32
Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-7
Russell Barnett,
Konrad Zmitrowicz
During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy implementation,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61,
E65,
G,
G1,
G12
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database Revisited: What’s New in 2018?
Staff Working Paper 2018-30
David Beers,
Jamshid Mavalwalla
Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada’s Credit Rating Assessment Group (CRAG) has developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults posted on the Bank of Canada’s website that now is updated in partnership with the Bank of England.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Development economics,
Financial stability,
International financial markets
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F34,
G,
G1,
G10,
G14,
G15