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283
result(s)
A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-23
Donald Coletti
The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C50,
C51,
C52,
C53,
C54,
C55
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-52
Serdar Birinci,
Fatih Karahan,
Yusuf Mercan,
Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E52,
J,
J3,
J31,
J6,
J62,
J64
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18
Vivian Chu,
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Christopher Hajzler,
Pierre-Yves Yanni
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Digitalization,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C8,
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation
Staff Analytical Note 2023-12
Panagiotis Bouras,
Christian Bustamante,
Xing Guo,
Jacob Short
We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
D4,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L1,
L11
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls
Staff Working Paper 2023-37
Temel Taskin,
Franz Ulrich Ruch
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E32,
G,
G1,
G10
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13
Marc-André Gosselin,
Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Domestic demand and components,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C3,
E,
E3,
E5
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11
Naveen Rai,
Patrick Sabourin
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31
Markups and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic
Staff Analytical Note 2023-8
Olga Bilyk,
Timothy Grieder,
Mikael Khan
We find that prices and costs for consumer-oriented firms moved roughly one-for-one during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means firms fully passed rising costs through to the prices they charged. However, our results are suggestive, given data limitations and the uncertainty associated with estimating markups.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D4,
E,
E2,
E3,
L,
L1
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance
Staff Working Paper 2023-35
Amina Enkhbold
I study how banking market concentration and reliance on wholesale funding affect monetary policy transmission to mortgage rates. I find that this transmission is imperfect and dampens the response of consumption, output, and housing prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy transmission,
Wholesale funding
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
G,
G2,
G21