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786
result(s)
Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-9
Bruno Feunou,
Zabi Tarshi
We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
E,
E4,
E43,
E47,
G,
G1,
G12
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-7
Stefano Gnocchi,
Fanny McKellips,
Rodrigo Sekkel,
Laure Simon,
Yinxi Xie,
Yang Zhang
We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
Central Bank Liquidity Policy in Modern Times
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-6
Skylar Brooks
Across several dimensions of lender of last resort policy, I highlight broad changes that have occurred since the 2008–09 global financial crisis and discuss some of the key challenges, choices and considerations facing the designers of central bank liquidity tools today.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Lender of last resort
JEL Code(s):
D,
D5,
D53,
E,
E5,
E58,
E6,
E61,
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G21,
G23,
H,
H1,
H12
Demand for Canadian Banknotes from International Travel: Indirect Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Staff Working Paper 2024-23
Hongyu Xiao
This study uses the COVID-19 travel restrictions to estimate foreign demand for Canadian banknotes. It reveals that international visitors accounted for about 10% of all $100 CAD notes in circulation pre-pandemic, with each visitor carrying an average of $165 in hundred-dollar bills.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Central bank research,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial services,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
E58,
F,
F2,
F22
Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach
Staff Analytical Note 2024-12
Dany Brouillette,
Tessa Devakos,
Raven Wheesk
We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Digitalization,
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D24,
J,
J1,
J11,
O,
O3,
O33,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures
Staff Working Paper 2024-19
Grzegorz Halaj,
Ruben Hipp
We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C51,
G,
G2,
G21,
L,
L1,
L14
Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4
Calista Cheung,
James Fudurich,
Janki Shah,
Farrukh Suvankulov
What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D0,
G,
G3,
G38,
J,
J1,
J15
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2024-11
Tessa Devakos,
Christopher Hajzler,
Stephanie Houle,
Craig Johnston,
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Ron Rautu,
Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024
Staff Analytical Note 2024-10
Amor Aniss Benmoussa,
Raheeb Dastagir,
Eshini Ekanayake,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
Helen Lao,
Jenna Rolland-Mills,
Aidan Spencer,
Lin Xiang
This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
F,
F0,
O,
O4