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2380
result(s)
Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices
Staff Working Paper 2004-5
Jean-Thomas Bernard,
Lynda Khalaf,
Maral Kichian
The authors test the statistical significance of Pindyck's (1999) suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C52,
C53,
Q,
Q4,
Q40
A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada
Staff Working Paper 2004-4
Stephen Murchison,
Andrew Rennison,
Zhenhua Zhu
The authors develop a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model in an attempt to understand the dynamic relationships in Canadian macroeconomic data.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E5,
E52
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine
Staff Working Paper 2004-3
Marc-André Gosselin,
René Lalonde
In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E37,
F,
F4,
F47
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Staff Working Paper 2004-2
Richard Luger
The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C52,
C53
The Effect of Adjustment Costs and Organizational Change on Productivity in Canada: Evidence from Aggregate Data
Staff Working Paper 2004-1
Danny Leung
A basic neoclassical model of production is often used to assess the contribution of investment to output growth. In the model, investment raises the capital stock and output growth increases in proportion to the growth in capital.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
O,
O3,
O31,
O4,
O49
December 23, 2003
The Comparative Growth of Goods and Services Prices
For several decades, the prices of services have been rising more rapidly than the prices of goods in Canada and the other major industrialized countries. In 2002, this gap between the growth rates of these two components of the consumer price index (CPI) widened considerably, leading researchers to ask if this was the beginning of a trend. Analysis reveals, however, that the gap is based on short-term dynamics and that it appears to be independent of the trend in the development of the overall price level. Evidence also shows that the gap is eventually reabsorbed. The authors examine a number of potential causes for the prices of services to rise faster than those of goods. These include the more rapid pace of productivity growth in the goods sector, the greater openness of goods to foreign trade, and stronger growth in the demand for services.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Productivity
December 22, 2003
Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries
The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
International topics
December 21, 2003
The Rationale for Cross-Border Listings
Technological progress and the liberalization of capital flows have both contributed to the considerable changes in global equity markets over the past few decades. Yet obstacles to international capital flows still exist, leading to segmentation of markets and creating incentives for corporate managers to adopt financial policies such as international cross-listing. In exploring the costs and benefits of cross-listing, Chouinard and D'Souza find that U.S. exchanges are attracting an increasing share of cross-listed firms. The empirical studies they review suggest that the cost of equity capital declines following a foreign listing as a result of lower transactions costs or an improvement in the quality and quantity of firm-specific information available to investors. As well, informational asymmetries across countries prevent simultaneous price discovery across exchanges.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
International topics
Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output
Staff Working Paper 2003-44
Francisco Barillas,
Christoph Schleicher
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C15,
C2,
C22,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E32