Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies
Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model.
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2435
result(s)
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?
Staff Working Paper 2006-27
Antonio Diez de los Rios
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Exchange rates,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
F,
F3,
F31,
G,
G1,
G12,
G15
Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP
Staff Working Paper 2006-26
Yi Zheng,
James Rossiter
The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C53
Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices
Staff Working Paper 2006-25
Greg Tkacz,
Carolyn A. Wilkins
The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E4
Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?
Staff Working Paper 2006-24
Partha Chatterjee,
Malik Shukayev
The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32
Convergence in a Stochastic Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model
Staff Working Paper 2006-23
Partha Chatterjee,
Malik Shukayev
The authors characterize the equilibrium for a small economy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model with uncertainty.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
F,
F4,
F43,
O,
O4,
O41
June 21, 2006
Credibility with Flexibility: The Evolution of Inflation-Targeting Regimes, 1990–2006
Beginning with a review of the adoption of inflation targeting in a broad group of countries, Paulin focuses on changes in the design of inflation-targeting frameworks in light of fifteen years of accumulated experience. Included in the discussion are the use of numerical targets and ranges, the policy horizon, supporting institutional policy structures, and communication, including the publication of forecasts. A recurring theme is how much flexibility an inflation-targeting regime allows. The article concludes that the changes made to the frameworks have been relatively modest since their adoption, but in concert with the improved credibility that has resulted from central banks meeting their inflation-control targets, they have allowed an increasingly nuanced response to economic shocks.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Research Topic(s):
Credibility,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework