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198
result(s)
Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada?
Staff Working Paper 2002-4
Jean Farès
The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
J,
J3,
J31
New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures for Canada, the United States, and the Euro Area
Staff Working Paper 2001-25
Edith Gagnon,
Hashmat Khan
Recent research on the new Phillips curve (NPC) (e.g., Galí, Gertler, and López-Salido 2001a) gives marginal cost an important role in capturing pressures on inflation. In this paper we assess the case for using alternative measures of marginal cost to improve the empirical fit of the NPC.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2001-18
Marc-André Gosselin,
Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E37
On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve
Staff Working Paper 2001-4
Maral Kichian
This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E37
Core Inflation
Technical Report No. 89
Seamus Hogan,
Marianne Johnson,
Thérèse Laflèche
The Bank of Canada uses core CPI inflation, the year-over-year rate of change of the consumer price index excluding food, energy, and the effects of changes in indirect taxes, as the operational guide for monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes
Staff Working Paper 2000-7
Greg Tkacz
Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
E,
E3,
E31
Indicator Models of Core Inflation for Canada
Staff Working Paper 1999-13
Richard Dion
When there is uncertainty about estimates of the margin of unused capacity in the economy, examining a range of inflation indicators may help in assessing the balance of risks regarding the outlook for inflation. This paper tests a wide range of observable variables for their leading-indicator properties with respect to core inflation, including: commodity prices, […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E37
Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets
Staff Working Paper 1999-6
Ben Fung,
Scott Mitnick,
Eli Remolona
Theory and empirical evidence suggest that the term structure of interest rates reflects risk premiums as well as market expectations about future inflation and real interest rates. We propose an approach to extracting such premiums and expectations by exploiting both the comovements among interest rates across the yield curve and between two countries, Canada and […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
G,
G1,
G12,
G15
A Non-Paradoxical Interpretation of the Gibson Paradox
Staff Working Paper 1998-22
Serge Coulombe
In this study, we show how, to yield the real cost of borrowing, the price level can be combined with the nominal interest rate in a monetary regime where the level of prices is trend stationary. We show that the price level then conveys intertemporal information in a way similar to nominal interest rates. We […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Interest rates