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786
result(s)
The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption
Staff Working Paper 2019-35
Doga Bilgin,
Reinhard Ellwanger
This paper presents a structural framework of the global oil market that relies on information on global fuel consumption to identify flow demand for oil. We show that under mild identifying assumptions, data on global fuel consumption help to provide comparatively sharp insights on elasticities and other key structural parameters of the global oil market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
L,
L7,
L71,
Q,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence
Staff Working Paper 2019-34
Alex Chernoff,
Patrick Alexander
We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
International topics,
Service sector
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F10,
F14,
L,
L8,
L81
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update
Staff Discussion Paper 2019-9
Helen Lao,
Ceciline Steyn
We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures
Staff Analytical Note 2019-26
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Maxime Leboeuf
Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
G,
G1,
G12
Using Exchange-Traded Funds to Measure Liquidity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market
Staff Analytical Note 2019-25
Rohan Arora,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Jabir Sandhu,
Jun Yang
We introduce a new proxy for measuring corporate bond liquidity, using the price of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold corporate bonds. It measures the average liquidity across 900 corporate bonds every day, many more than other proxies used in previous Bank of Canada analysis. The new proxy nonetheless paints a very similar picture of liquidity conditions and confirms the previous findings: the liquidity of bonds has generally improved since 2010.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
A Tale of Two Countries: Cash Demand in Canada and Sweden
Staff Discussion Paper 2019-7
Walter Engert,
Ben Fung,
Björn Segendorf
Cash use for payments has been steadily decreasing in many countries, including Canada and Sweden. This might suggest an evolution toward a cashless society. But in Canada, cash in circulation relative to GDP has been stable for decades and has even increased in recent years. By contrast, the cash-to-GDP ratio in Sweden has been falling steadily. What has caused this difference? Are there lessons to be learned from comparing the Canadian and Swedish experiences?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial services,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5
Explaining Unusual Cash Patterns in 2018
Staff Analytical Note 2019-22
Walter Engert,
Ben Fung,
Jozsef Molnar,
Gradon Nicholls
There was an unusually large decline of bank notes in circulation in October 2018. Some have argued that this was due to the legalization of cannabis in Canada in mid-October.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
E58
Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches
Staff Working Paper 2019-25
Jonathan Swarbrick
We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Interest rates,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
G,
G0,
G01
How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections
Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6
Olivier Gervais
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C5,
E,
E3,
E37,
Q,
Q4,
Q43