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786
result(s)
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021
Staff Analytical Note 2021-5
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
Ali Jaffery,
Christopher Hajzler,
Jonathan Lachaine,
Peter Shannon,
Subrata Sarker,
Graeme Westwood,
Beiling Yan
We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
E4,
E5,
F,
F0,
O,
O4
Non-bank financial intermediation in Canada: a pulse check
Staff Analytical Note 2021-2
Rohan Arora,
Guillaume Bédard-Pagé,
Philippe Besnier,
Hayden Ford,
Alan Walsh
The Canadian non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector saw strong growth in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, COVID‑19 caused a financial shock. We provide a preliminary analysis on the impact of COVID‑19 on the sector as well as an update on its growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G20,
G23
Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19
Staff Working Paper 2021-13
Jason Allen,
Robert Clark,
Shaoteng Li,
Nicolas Vincent
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Credit and credit aggregates,
Debt management
JEL Code(s):
G,
G3,
G31,
H,
H5
COVID-19 Crisis: Lessons Learned for Future Policy Research
Staff Discussion Paper 2021-2
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Corey Garriott,
Jesse Johal,
Jessica Lee,
Andreas Uthemann
One year later, we review the events that took place in Canadian fixed-income markets at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and propose potential policy research questions for future work.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D47,
E,
E4,
E41,
E5,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G14,
G2,
G20,
G21,
G23
Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in Canada and the United States
Staff Working Paper 2021-8
Marie-Hélène Felt,
Fumiko Hayashi,
Joanna Stavins,
Angelika Welte
Although credit cards are more expensive for merchants to accept than cash or debit cards, merchants typically pass through their costs evenly to all customers. Along with consumer card rewards and banking fees, this creates cross-subsidies between payment methods. Because higher-income individuals tend to use credit cards more than those with lower incomes, our results indicate that these cross-subsidies might lead to regressive distributional effects.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Market structure and pricing,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
D2,
D23,
D3,
D31,
E,
E4,
E42,
G,
G2,
G21,
L,
L8,
L81
Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making
Staff Discussion Paper 2021-1
Chris D'Souza,
Jane Voll
Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown
Staff Working Paper 2021-1
Lin Shao,
Rongsheng Tang
In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E23,
O,
O4,
O47
A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-15
David Amirault,
Naveen Rai,
Laurent Martin
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E32
Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service
Staff Working Paper 2020-55
Lerby Ergun,
Andreas Uthemann
We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
D,
D5,
D53,
D8,
D83,
G,
G1,
G12,
G14