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282
result(s)
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Staff Working Paper 2014-52
Michael Ehrmann
Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58
November 13, 2014
Recent Developments in Experimental Macroeconomics
This article describes experimental economics, in general, and new developments in experimental macroeconomics, in particular. The approach has a clear niche in providing evidence on economic phenomena that cannot be observed directly or that are difficult to measure. Experimental work conducted by Bank of Canada economists has shed light on a number of issues important to monetary policy, such as the relative efficacy between price-level and inflation targeting, and the nature of inflation expectations formation.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility
Staff Working Paper 2014-45
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Nicolas Vincent
Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns (“sales”) by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52,
L,
L1,
L11,
L2,
L25,
L8,
L81,
M,
M3,
M31
Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks
Staff Working Paper 2014-39
William A. Barnett,
Marcelle Chauvet,
Danilo Leiva-Leon
This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real-time information arrives at different frequencies and asynchronously, which poses challenges of mixed frequencies, missing data and ragged edges.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E31,
E32
Global Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period: What Explains the Twin Puzzle?
Staff Working Paper 2014-36
Christian Friedrich
Inflation dynamics in advanced countries have produced two consecutive puzzles during the years after the global financial crisis. The first puzzle emerged when inflation rates over the period 2009-11 were consistently higher than expected, although economic slack in advanced countries reached its highest level in recent history.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
F,
F4,
F41
Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations
Staff Working Paper 2014-28
Michael Ehrmann,
Damjan Pfajfar,
Emiliano Santoro
This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households’ financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?
Staff Working Paper 2013-52
Christiane Baumeister,
Lutz Kilian
U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
Q,
Q1,
Q11,
Q4,
Q42,
Q43
Perceived Inflation Persistence
Staff Working Paper 2013-43
Monica Jain
The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has had vast influence on research related to better understanding expectation formation and the behaviour of macroeconomic agents. Inflation expectations, in particular, have received a great deal of attention, since they play a crucial role in determining real interest rates, the expectations-augmented Phillips curve and monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E37
Central Bank Communications Before, During and After the Crisis: From Open-Market Operations to Open-Mouth Policy
Staff Working Paper 2013-41
Ianthi Vayid
The days when secrecy and opacity were the bywords of central banking are gone. The advent of inflation targeting in the early 1990s acted as the catalyst for enhanced transparency and communications in the conduct of monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Financial stability,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58